Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d4fbd7f3f76113390147d8e60af8fe3aaff9a0b5b5d7c759720a01f724c7ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 225$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…317fbacked Yes | 25c | 217.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 215.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 6c | 186.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 185$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 146$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 139.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 134.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 27c | 111.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 110.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 110.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 18c | 103.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 20c | 89.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 88.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 21c | 78.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 57.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 71c | 56.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 56.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 46.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 44.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 40.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 33.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 28.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 24.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 67c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.