Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918c107c3f070ca7e0fa59d385ec148db31f8436fcb27a8f86d68c2fae907cd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 70c | 624.19$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.55 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 58c | 251.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 42c | 157.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 153$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 128.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 112.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…317fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 43c | 97.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 87.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 75.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 72.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 37c | 71.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 48c | 70.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 68.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8c36backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 41c | 38.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 33c | 38.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 38.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 40c | 34.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 35c | 31.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 28.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 51c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 45c | 22.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 21.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.