CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f0d195644317f06cc31393322f2f015022a14586d4869d056daf2e602b80ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Spirit | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 424 | 40.3%171 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Spirit | 37c | 3,284$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.82 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,795$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,761$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.13 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Spirit | 34c | 512.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.35 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 396.28$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 370.45$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Spirit | 38c | 359.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…6adfbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 167.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 159.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 471 | 65.2%307 W · 164 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 141.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…756bbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…8056backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 89.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked Spirit | 35c | 89.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Spirit | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Spirit | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ASpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.