CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7a8247faaf89b194fd658402383ebba11bf133624ad4d8e485e2fe7516c792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 1,150$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.43 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Under | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…ddf5backed Over | 59c | 853.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 341 | 56.6%193 W · 148 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…8f01backed Over | 15c | 654.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 66c | 595.96$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 67c | 270$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 451 | 62.3%281 W · 170 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…6b6abacked Over | 55c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Over | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…a474backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over | 49c | 45.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…60f9backed Under | 67c | 39.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…9a74backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…7375backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ASpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.