South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40b11f780f1fa9a7d6d863b9bd28ba9808e27a3a002e883d82097508fd4440c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 5,832$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 5,249$3,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.86 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 52c | 4,333$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.65 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 23c | 1,864$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.78 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,515$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 53c | 1,174$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.65 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…9fe0backed Yes | 48c | 1,037$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 797.99$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 474.92$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 57c | 436.97$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 33c | 332$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 68c | 318.59$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 51c | 276$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 18c | 252.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 5c | 217.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 217.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 35c | 201.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 36c | 197.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 80c | 196.55$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 80c | 162.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 35c | 146.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 31c | 119.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 43c | 115.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 50c | 100.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Yes | 20c | 96.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 31c | 89.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 43c | 88.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Yes | 41c | 82.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 36c | 74.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 60.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 46c | 59.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 40c | 55.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…529ebacked Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed Yes | 56c | 50.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 46.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 37c | 45.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 42c | 41.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 61c | 36.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 35c | 36.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…b695backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…d21dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-06?No won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.