NHL · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40cbf0713112cbcf7143e485b372aa12e7bdf1c464bbe2b17e622ef797d7b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Utah, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Utah | 45c | 642.28$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.52 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Utah | 31c | 640.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…9dabbacked Ducks | 67c | 533.37$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 69c | 528$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.13 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Utah | 33c | 508.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ducks | 69c | 232$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…6456backed Ducks | 56c | 194.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Utah | 30c | 188.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Utah | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Ducks | 55c | 90.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ducks | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Ducks | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Utah | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Ducks | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Ducks | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Ducks | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Ducks | 72c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Utah | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ducks | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Ducks | 68c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Ducks | 37c | 36.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…f097backed Utah | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Ducks | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Ducks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Ducks | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. DucksDucks won
- Utah vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.