CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42bc3262335b803c66f14becf2ed5a0ebf7128fd80cda6aa9886b5ba773d6ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd03d…429bbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609e…0ae6backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 57c | 1,408$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.43 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 845.07$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.7 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Under | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…0efcbacked Over | 45c | 440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 36c | 349.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…90e4backed Under | 55c | 273$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Under | 66c | 245.76$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 339 | 60.8%206 W · 133 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 39c | 228.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cf…a6afbacked Under | 55c | 219$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…1a4cbacked Under | 55c | 215$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…c3b5backed Over | 45c | 157$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…046dbacked Over | 45c | 116$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…4e9fbacked Over | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 48c | 106.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 80c | 106.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under | 41c | 101.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…d974backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | -18.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…139abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ac47backed Over | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9ef4backed Over | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…199dbacked Over | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 49c | 56.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed Over | 54c | 44.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…18bfbacked Over | 50c | 44.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Over | 52c | 43.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 37c | 41.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 47c | 37.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Under | 51c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 49c | 21.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…8b98backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2TheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)TheMongolz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.