TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof TheMongolz, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$727,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,370 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4116…2d0bbacked paiN0c112,710$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.732623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked paiN46c93,361$42,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,558.4942440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed TheMongolz55c41,170$22,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,645.6322049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed TheMongolz54c26,345$14,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,118.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed paiN45c20,045$9,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,120.2372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed paiN36c13,990$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0094344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz54c12,747$6,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,834.861,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked TheMongolz50c11,870$5,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,901.5415760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked paiN63c11,521$7,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,25632348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed TheMongolz55c10,595$5,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.5824846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TheMongolz53c9,785$5,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.753,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed TheMongolz55c8,875$4,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,993.751070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked TheMongolz49c7,569$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.412,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed paiN48c7,037$3,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.6928248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz55c6,910$3,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.854,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed TheMongolz55c6,400$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88022142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f91dbacked paiN5c6,281$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.792326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz52c5,736$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.121,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed TheMongolz49c5,346$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.681,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked TheMongolz53c5,303$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.513,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed TheMongolz51c5,003$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.829153.8%49 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed TheMongolz55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2507940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x568c…fbd0backed paiN62c4,826$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz52c4,693$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.381,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed TheMongolz55c4,045$2,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.9916152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked paiN45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed paiN25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked TheMongolz55c3,550$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.2729046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked TheMongolz56c3,426$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.6727133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TheMongolz50c3,130$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.376,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked TheMongolz61c3,080$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.171681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+42.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TheMongolz51c3,076$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.7888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed paiN22c2,500$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.021,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked paiN51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.5622550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed TheMongolz59c2,200$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed TheMongolz55c2,094$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.37146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked TheMongolz35c2,040$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1512946.5%60 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cb…d235backed paiN53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0602437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked paiN10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked paiN46c1,991$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.6916448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b25…77a8backed TheMongolz45c1,936$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed paiN54c1,806$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.7821941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed TheMongolz55c1,761$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.8325147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked TheMongolz55c1,720$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.8810550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked paiN48c1,705$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.6415732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN45c1,674$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.471,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed TheMongolz42c1,425$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.819250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71fa…c7e1backed TheMongolz13c1,362$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.542339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked TheMongolz53c1,328$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.574146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked paiN50c1,294$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65018049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed TheMongolz53c1,261$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.1636554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed paiN47c1,223$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57524944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed TheMongolz55c1,219$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.9841260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed paiN35c1,127$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.795,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed paiN45c1,100$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49816149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed TheMongolz55c1,047$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.9916947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TheMongolz55c1,013$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.7845058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed paiN35c1,009$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.0247641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed TheMongolz40c1,008$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.5852947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked TheMongolz62c1,003$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.671,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed paiN46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46011852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed paiN48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked paiN53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked TheMongolz55c998.18$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.189147.3%43 W · 48 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed paiN46c923.91$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4258053.8%43 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed TheMongolz79c912$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2222448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb15…cbdabacked TheMongolz66c910$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3106654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked paiN52c819.23$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42632548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x640f…f197backed TheMongolz12c816.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.624122%9 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked TheMongolz46c780.02$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.3834542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked TheMongolz55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3154528.9%13 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TheMongolz55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed TheMongolz57c667.96$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9616354%88 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz64c664.09$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.527,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed paiN48c655$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31469635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed paiN47c636.17$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.725648.2%27 W · 29 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked paiN59c625.68$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37033457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed paiN51c609.25$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.624,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked TheMongolz57c602.25$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.0610945%49 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed paiN33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19831444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed paiN58c589.66$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3424942.9%21 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked TheMongolz55c579$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.555455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed paiN52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ee1…f616backed paiN36c573.55$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7713332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked paiN46c553.69$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.492,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed TheMongolz55c541.34$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2444743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f96…123cbacked TheMongolz55c538.71$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.421250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed TheMongolz74c523.1$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5719048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed paiN10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed paiN45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22516250%81 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked TheMongolz77c497.45$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4141069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa69…6e45backed paiN44c490$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.61947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked TheMongolz56c490$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.62850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed TheMongolz47c478$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.911,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked paiN52c477.72$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed TheMongolz43c477.45$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0896543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf5…3cbdbacked TheMongolz50c442$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed paiN51c439.63$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1511240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85fd…7cbbbacked paiN44c429$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked TheMongolz53c428.68$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.287448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.