Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4307a51ccfaefa6ea68be0403e089d50fa556c03ae683ffbabdc169d403de32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 8c | 12,092$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 63c | 966.12$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.18 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 36c | 474.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.28 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 39c | 451.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.05 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 40c | 394.87$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 208.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 33c | 199.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 52c | 190.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 176.9$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 37c | 159.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 158.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 34c | 131.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 43c | 116.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 103.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 53c | 101.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 101.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 99.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 94.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 93.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 55c | 91.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 51c | 86.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 79c | 75.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 53c | 75.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 51c | 75.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 73.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 66.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 65.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 65.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 67c | 61.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 68c | 58.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 56.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 34c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 53.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 67c | 51.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 23c | 46.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 50c | 43.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 37c | 41.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 43c | 39.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 38.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 34c | 37.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 34.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 34.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 59c | 33.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 52c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 79c | 26.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 69c | 25.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 72c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 62c | 22.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 71c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 57c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 63c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 70c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 65c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.