Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cf27e3e51c07fb4e7bcad19b1bfdcea8c41140babb5ca90cd98f5ed017c7d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 611.13$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.66 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 65c | 514.52$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.76 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 252.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 166.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 161.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 73c | 136.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 31c | 132.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 120.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 14c | 112.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 97.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 88.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 39c | 78.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 36c | 77.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 71.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 71.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 68.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 66.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 63.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 63.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 38c | 60.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 57.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…bc29backed Yes | 50c | 55.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 53c | 49.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 45.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 44.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 40.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 32.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 32c | 31.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 31.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 35c | 30.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 40c | 27.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.