Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88ea5cd8e0168876a61bcff08f42118ba161557f2f40e9eb471f294f3b313c01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 26c | 295.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 281.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 245.55$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 153.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 150.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 139.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 130.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 114.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 100.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 78.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 77c | 69.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 37c | 61.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 37c | 59.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 53.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 30c | 49.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked Yes | 36c | 47.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 43.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 41.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd0…bd9fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 77c | 32.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 37c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 68c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 29.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 42c | 28.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 63c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6411…6b97backed No | 65c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.