Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43c1923fe24f02c2a9b5e78d27d1827f1506c26cea77d3110863ff5d99038bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 513$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 4c | 394.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 10c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 14c | 137.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 135.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 127.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 77c | 103.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…3179backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02e1…c7eabacked Yes | 55c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +132%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 10–15%?this page
- Will Diana DeGette win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 5%+?No won
- Will Diana DeGette win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by more than 20%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.