CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd459ad232c45af166db1a3c4bea8ea5c8d3090b561a799db6e5417f4385af052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 5,023$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,678.54 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 25c | 2,501$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.38 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 1,428$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.88 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Heroic | 28c | 1,245$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.04 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Heroic | 30c | 1,158$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.4 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Heroic | 28c | 1,034$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.88 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 24c | 996$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.76 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Heroic | 22c | 900.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.61 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 24c | 799.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.38 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 26c | 610.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.77 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 471.44$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.23 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 335.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…b394backed Heroic | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 105.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…1316backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 24.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 24.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Heroic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.