NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd47426cd6240711da554e8dcff1b38709b3a9229e9c6092070f3ed76fc11c585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 14,365$6,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,320.5 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 56c | 12,643$7,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,563.11 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 47c | 10,616$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.63 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 7,204$3,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,385.87 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Over | 53c | 2,400$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 47c | 1,732$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.13 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 1,701$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 45c | 1,057$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.86 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…9912backed Under | 44c | 938.64$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 10c | 640.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 513.22$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 8c | 345.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 33c | 332.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 9c | 264$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 235.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 44c | 183.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 44c | 179.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 45c | 135.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 108.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 93.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 55c | 79.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 60c | 62.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 44c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 55c | 46.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 40.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Over | 57c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. SabresSabres won
- Ducks vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.