South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48ab74cc378f3115ed669ed1d0f49b643a4ba38901b1d8d34eaca0dc7b82499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 25c | 9,994$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.52 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 5,308$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.12 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 4,747$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 3,527$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.23 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 46c | 2,891$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.45 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,759$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 1,583$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.46 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,125$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.22 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 44c | 1,023$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 470.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 56c | 455.41$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 56c | 400$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 398.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 70c | 229.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 19c | 188$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 46c | 184.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 71c | 137.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…c3a6backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 53c | 96.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 47c | 95.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 67c | 72.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 69.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked No | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 33c | 61.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…d86dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 69c | 45.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…1c3dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…f8c4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 25.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked No | 53c | 22.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Club León FC win on 2026-01-18?No won
- Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Club León FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.