WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49119de6eb83fc859da773f72db8da931ed3070083ee811627beefa1869b3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Toronto Tempo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Liberty | 49c | 4,845$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.74 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 4,600$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Liberty | 50c | 3,844$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.08 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Toronto Tempo | 50c | 3,360$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.81 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 50c | 1,568$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.07 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed New York Liberty | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.95 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed New York Liberty | 50c | 1,126$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo | 48c | 1,096$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.59 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Toronto Tempo | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Toronto Tempo | 7c | 657.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked New York Liberty | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed New York Liberty | 49c | 340.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty | 50c | 329$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo | 50c | 226.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked New York Liberty | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Toronto Tempo | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked New York Liberty | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty | 50c | 127.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Toronto Tempo | 57c | 122.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked New York Liberty | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked New York Liberty | 50c | 69.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 66.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Toronto Tempo | 52c | 61.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed New York Liberty | 38c | 57.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed New York Liberty | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Liberty | 48c | 45.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Liberty | 49c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Liberty | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed New York Liberty | 45c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed New York Liberty | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed New York Liberty | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Liberty | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)this page
- Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)New York Liberty won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.