WNBA · resolved market
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a381d1f4e676f878ed278e0df6e8cea86442d67e4cdadf54ffce29440ad2aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 25,294$12,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900.05 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Over | 46c | 19,936$9,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,715.63 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 51c | 19,548$9,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,969.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,962.41 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 6,250$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109.61 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -64%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 1,221$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 1,125$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 758.51$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.67 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Over | 26c | 697.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Under | 53c | 671.24$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 610.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.44 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Under | 77c | 499.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.99 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 51c | 419$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Under | 51c | 293.71$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 50c | 285.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 77c | 259.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…70d9backed Over | 52c | 221.79$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Under | 55c | 193.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 45c | 187.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Under | 52c | 180.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 171.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 48c | 166.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 52c | 150.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Under | 51c | 128$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 45c | 119.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 57c | 119.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 114.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 112.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851a…0415backed Over | 25c | 100.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 49c | 92.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 42c | 90.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 52c | 82.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 50c | 73.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 73.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 51c | 66.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 51c | 65.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 50c | 64.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 56.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…5d44backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 51c | 44.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 66c | 42.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 79c | 40.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 46c | 39.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 49c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…25b2backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 51c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Under | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 51c | 26.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 51c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 47c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5this page
- Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)New York Liberty won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.