Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd498a92e8d9ae7171e1d2de00b52b70fa267ab67d2cad4bfdb4ff2542d6872b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 54c | 1,653$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.47 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 675.09$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 48c | 616.93$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 54c | 253.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 214.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 184$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 157$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 55c | 153.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 147.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 122.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 54c | 116.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 99.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 98.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 96.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 84.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 84.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 73.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 72.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 68.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 64c | 52.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…e017backed No | 63c | 52.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 50.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 40c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 47.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 45.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 43.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 42.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 38.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 52c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 31.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…4c88backed No | 62c | 31.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 47c | 30.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 45c | 29.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 68c | 29.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 27.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 44c | 27.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 64c | 24.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 64c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.