NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a23230c1602fdd31060e3c7570ce226335ca2a8bc00e69eceb052c18313da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 44c | 4,616$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.96 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Under | 58c | 3,144$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 2,406$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 2,237$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.43 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 1,064$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 52c | 524.7$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 59c | 509.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Over | 78c | 457.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 59c | 426$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 381.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 66c | 356$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 284.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 241.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Under | 66c | 220.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 180.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 139.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 45c | 111.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 110.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…e19abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Under | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 78.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 57c | 54.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 57c | 42.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 55c | 42.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 48c | 41.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Over | 44c | 32.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 30.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 57c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 25.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. CanucksStars won
- Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.