Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Yakult Brothers (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd507e80b94513543c168ac1c0943541be9395edb15fdf1fdbe8aa073e1bdb13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Team Falcons, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yakult Brothers | 18c | 10,305$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,450.35 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 29c | 6,667$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,713.93 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 3c | 3,504$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…7075backed Team Falcons | 3c | 3,100$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 2,398$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.59 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 2,274$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.53 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 2,100$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yakult Brothers | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.89 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…67a6backed Team Falcons | 4c | 1,205$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.26 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.99 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 1,093$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakult Brothers | 14c | 886.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.75 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Yakult Brothers | 60c | 859.89$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.95 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…a1cfbacked Yakult Brothers | 18c | 696$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 619.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.48 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 613.77$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.4 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Team Falcons | 49c | 604.45$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 555.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.75 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7582…f6b2backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 547$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Team Falcons | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Yakult Brothers | 68c | 489.99$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons | 21c | 486.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 466.62$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 385.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 384.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Falcons | 40c | 375.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Team Falcons | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…e081backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 339$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yakult Brothers | 39c | 310.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 206.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc7…5b85backed Team Falcons | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…23b3backed Team Falcons | 36c | 182.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yakult Brothers | 17c | 180$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…1e17backed Team Falcons | 40c | 170.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Yakult Brothers | 16c | 164.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 135$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Team Falcons | 65c | 123.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…4e67backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yakult Brothers | 19c | 111.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…b234backed Team Falcons | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…c543backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 89.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e430backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 88.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yakult Brothers | 63c | 84.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Falcons | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 75.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Team Falcons | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4026…93f8backed Team Falcons | 31c | 70.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons | 64c | 69.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Team Falcons | 48c | 60.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yakult Brothers | 71c | 55.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 52.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…c6b0backed Team Falcons | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…74c5backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Team Falcons | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…e67bbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Team Falcons | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Team Falcons | 45c | 40.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 74c | 38.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…1f2abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 28.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked Team Falcons | 42c | 24.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons | 79c | 20.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…d9f7backed Team Falcons | 66c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…fbe0backed Team Falcons | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 71cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.