Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd55d87b5ff0852368900b8154d66512ad854a35c6465efcf063404d4ebe0842a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 17c | 511$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.13 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 26c | 210.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 157.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 131.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 9c | 119.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 119.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 116.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 62c | 106.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 100.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…f128backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 32c | 98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 86.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 75c | 79.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 55c | 72.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 25c | 68.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 63.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 44c | 61.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 57.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 62c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 55.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 51.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 50.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 26c | 50.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 24c | 49.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 48.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 74c | 46.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 34c | 39.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 38.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 33.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 32.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 29.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 22.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 15.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.