Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de25d37b5e5c9691c597f02d7a71591207d147a89c09d621af7cee743a5f766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 515.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 64c | 344$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 214$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 53c | 116.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 93.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 91.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 70.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 67.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 56.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 56.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 52.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 47.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 57c | 45.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 43c | 42.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 58c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 28.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 26.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…f128backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 57c | 22.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 49c | 22.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6da5backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.