Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5c6449c281519b2baf460686edf1e49cb894e4249c70cfac0c6885b8c51f6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b8b…fb0abacked Yes | 0c | 9,602$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,933$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,945$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 225.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 44c | 181.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 35c | 170.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 44c | 154.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 37c | 145.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed No | 62c | 125.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 44c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 110.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 74c | 109.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 106.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 102.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 60c | 99.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 48c | 94.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 90.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 59c | 84.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 78c | 84.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 47c | 83.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 46c | 79.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked No | 38c | 69.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 18c | 65.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 57c | 62.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 59.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 63c | 56.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 33c | 50.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a949backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 49.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 52c | 49.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 53c | 44.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 39c | 40.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 48c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 43c | 31.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 47c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 25.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 79c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…316bbacked Yes | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.