Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4765424ce297b5bebc7955fac688f09431531c4c6acc6be90c575dbc216020de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 5c | 608.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 3c | 605.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 18c | 351.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 11c | 339.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 4c | 338.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 275.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 12c | 239.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 14c | 233.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 10c | 228.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 218.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 195.69$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 44c | 159.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 9c | 151.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 150.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 144.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…72d1backed No | 10c | 140.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 12c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 132.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 13c | 124.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 17c | 116.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…0a14backed No | 10c | 116.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 19c | 115.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 43c | 114.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 104.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 35c | 103$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 89.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 64c | 89.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 17c | 88.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 80.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 31c | 71.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 19c | 69.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 64c | 59.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 20c | 54.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 43.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 70c | 31.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…a345backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 28.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 24.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 24.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 67c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…8eb3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.