Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cf139533292cec14a03d2624026eca39d419cefa4cd1eb4da23eead121be63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 23c | 276.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 13c | 235.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 230.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 43c | 143.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…3a72backed Yes | 25c | 140.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 135.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 132.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 130.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 62c | 129.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 34c | 115.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 91.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 89.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 58.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 49.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 46.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 41.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 38c | 36.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 34.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 33.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 31.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 43c | 30.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 26.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 59c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 55c | 19.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.