TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ENERGYULTRAof Lilmix, ENERGYULTRA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,837 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked Lilmix55c14,683$8,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,064.5392456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked ENERGYULTRA46c8,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32018950.8%96 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ENERGYULTRA46c6,639$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,612.275,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ENERGYULTRA46c5,948$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.472,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Lilmix50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044551.2%228 W · 217 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ENERGYULTRA50c992.44$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.297,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lilmix6c981.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.552,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lilmix5c952$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.141,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Lilmix54c827.98$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.1120842.8%89 W · 119 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Lilmix51c809.76$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.222044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Lilmix17c776.31$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.335,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Lilmix54c733.06$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.8545565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ENERGYULTRA47c723.63$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.862,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Lilmix54c711.05$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9713371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed ENERGYULTRA48c665.52$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9450051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Lilmix53c640.09$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8537845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed ENERGYULTRA46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32426155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ENERGYULTRA46c594.69$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.5540341.7%168 W · 235 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Lilmix54c560.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9138839.4%153 W · 235 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Lilmix57c552$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.377940.5%32 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Lilmix51c484.12$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8676933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Lilmix54c483.29$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25910541%43 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed Lilmix53c457.79$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6615349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed ENERGYULTRA76c450.14$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.913663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed ENERGYULTRA47c432.48$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8922049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Lilmix22c411.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.333,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ENERGYULTRA47c372.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.345,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Lilmix54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Lilmix49c332.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7544643.5%194 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Lilmix50c325.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3210041%41 W · 59 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Lilmix54c323.63$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.761,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed ENERGYULTRA47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15927050.7%137 W · 133 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ENERGYULTRA42c297.32$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.451,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Lilmix54c295$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.317441.4%72 W · 102 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Lilmix54c290$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.635153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Lilmix54c286$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4426854.5%146 W · 122 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed ENERGYULTRA48c281.32$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.449849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Lilmix54c272.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1467735.1%27 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Lilmix10c264$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.12,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Lilmix23c246.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.52,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed ENERGYULTRA45c224.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7523146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Lilmix54c220.22$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9227552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d70…ae13backed Lilmix51c219.1$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.64045%18 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Lilmix14c213$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.112,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Lilmix50c200.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9666436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed ENERGYULTRA46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10817451.7%90 W · 84 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Lilmix50c196.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.435947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Lilmix55c174.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6231647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x633f…2104backed Lilmix55c173.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.713161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Lilmix50c162$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8114441%59 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lilmix13c162$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.495,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Lilmix54c149$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4611250.9%57 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0149…9bc0backed Lilmix54c146.7$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed ENERGYULTRA47c142.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8234750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee22…7054backed Lilmix22c142$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111844.1%52 W · 66 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed ENERGYULTRA42c141.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6277351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Lilmix57c138$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9828755.1%158 W · 129 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ENERGYULTRA46c132.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.361,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed ENERGYULTRA46c129.03$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2119340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x701c…fa14backed Lilmix50c124.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.751650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d6…041dbacked Lilmix54c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.26735.8%24 W · 43 L-13.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-41.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Lilmix47c117.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.542,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed ENERGYULTRA62c115.48$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0240857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed ENERGYULTRA43c114.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0627748.7%135 W · 142 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4db1…528cbacked Lilmix51c102.37$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.967150.7%36 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e85…01fcbacked Lilmix58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd65…304fbacked Lilmix50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Lilmix23c99.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.382,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Lilmix55c95.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4189046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ENERGYULTRA50c87.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8681551.7%421 W · 394 L+26.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed ENERGYULTRA50c82.62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3175048.4%363 W · 387 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed ENERGYULTRA47c82.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.731553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3776…e17abacked Lilmix54c79.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.095549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Lilmix14c78.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.361,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Lilmix66c75.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.383644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe34c…ca55backed Lilmix52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398035%28 W · 52 L-13.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-38.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9e16…7a42backed ENERGYULTRA48c74.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Lilmix44c71.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.622,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb795…1a30backed Lilmix57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked ENERGYULTRA50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,39752.4%732 W · 665 L+30.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326d…3584backed Lilmix39c69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.914721.3%10 W · 37 L-13.4wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed ENERGYULTRA60c62.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2710437.5%39 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Lilmix38c60.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232015%3 W · 17 L-6.3wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-72.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Lilmix50c59.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7311644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Lilmix54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed ENERGYULTRA41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.56333.3%21 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9444…048ebacked ENERGYULTRA48c48.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2314751.7%76 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked ENERGYULTRA42c46.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0753145.4%241 W · 290 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked ENERGYULTRA41c44.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed ENERGYULTRA63c44.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.336856.8%209 W · 159 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa775…acbbbacked Lilmix49c41.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked ENERGYULTRA68c40.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.166761.2%41 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Lilmix52c39.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5434340.8%140 W · 203 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed ENERGYULTRA47c38.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.376248.4%369 W · 393 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Lilmix54c36.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.649149.9%245 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed ENERGYULTRA50c34.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19238%35 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8022…44c6backed Lilmix53c33.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed ENERGYULTRA49c31.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3812844.5%57 W · 71 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Lilmix50c29.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9916750.9%85 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed ENERGYULTRA50c29.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.776552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.