Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67f2639a0cd23d8acd9a2ac95bd6bb356ec3b797bce920645f8eb2be6c211eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 38c | 498.95$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 39c | 421.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 368$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f526backed Yes | 45c | 235$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 9c | 178.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 40c | 172.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 167.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 143.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 51c | 142.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 122.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 106.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 28c | 100.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 73.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 17c | 70.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 69.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 47c | 48.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…5d35backed No | 60c | 45.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 45c | 45.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 43.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 41c | 40.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…81acbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 30.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 25.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 12?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.