Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17316aeb12e4166a07568eb9873eb41da1175e96bae0b0525ea4a87a0659dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,243$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.99 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 711.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 36c | 407.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.15 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 404.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.53 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 329.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 282.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 278.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 268.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 69c | 222.28$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 216.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 9c | 210.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 65c | 182.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 75c | 167.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 74c | 164.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 7c | 149.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 35c | 143.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 129.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 112.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 93.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 71c | 86.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 34c | 84.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 24c | 84.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 69.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 27c | 65.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 68c | 58.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 74c | 51.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 48.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 47.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 42.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…d3c7backed No | 71c | 38.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 37.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 29.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 25.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 68c | 23.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 12?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.