Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kramsach: Daniel Siniakov vs Manuel Plunger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b75b1bf4219fa3003b001a1245ad12ac542b4ba5928f12c3ea46c1cf1caf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manuel Plungerof Daniel Siniakov, Manuel Plunger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Daniel Siniakov | 9c | 4,843$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.87 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Daniel Siniakov | 68c | 3,233$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Manuel Plunger | 24c | 2,987$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.99 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 2,428$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.12 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Manuel Plunger | 15c | 1,689$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.43 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manuel Plunger | 17c | 1,411$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.34 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Manuel Plunger | 17c | 1,003$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.75 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Manuel Plunger | 14c | 931.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.66 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Manuel Plunger | 14c | 719.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.66 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Manuel Plunger | 17c | 505.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.88 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…952fbacked Manuel Plunger | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Daniel Siniakov | 73c | 494.86$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Daniel Siniakov | 70c | 411.29$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.9 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Daniel Siniakov | 38c | 298.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Manuel Plunger | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Manuel Plunger | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Daniel Siniakov | 28c | 248.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Manuel Plunger | 15c | 230.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.78 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Manuel Plunger | 18c | 220.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Manuel Plunger | 14c | 171.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 169.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Siniakov | 21c | 158.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Daniel Siniakov | 33c | 126$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Daniel Siniakov | 80c | 124.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Manuel Plunger | 14c | 119.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Manuel Plunger | 12c | 106.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 104.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Daniel Siniakov | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Daniel Siniakov | 43c | 84.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Daniel Siniakov | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…1a32backed Manuel Plunger | 65c | 57.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 150 | 79.3%119 W · 31 L | +17.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Daniel Siniakov | 77c | 47.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Manuel Plunger | 42c | 46.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Daniel Siniakov | 73c | 41.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Daniel Siniakov | 53c | 40.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 24.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Manuel Plunger | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Manuel Plunger | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Daniel Siniakov | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Daniel Siniakov | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Daniel Siniakov | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.