Middle East · resolved market
Greta Thunberg released from custody by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d1de6aef0c934456d5d973e7d399c5ecf2dfacf6b86b2a223820bcbb89f701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 8,083$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 9c | 3,661$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.3 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed No | 8c | 3,034$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked No | 9c | 2,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 5c | 2,029$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 7c | 1,974$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed No | 6c | 1,537$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 8c | 1,362$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 737.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d45…d03dbacked No | 8c | 622.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked No | 9c | 385.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 4c | 302.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…c3bfbacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 4c | 265.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…e95ebacked No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…35febacked No | 6c | 212.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…f96fbacked No | 7c | 205.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked No | 7c | 192.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 8c | 170.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed No | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…b0b5backed No | 7c | 148.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b4…1b35backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.