Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6fb910edf03272eccced142ad9280a8c5b1257467db63955c38ad80bd5e6478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 263.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 238.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 191.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 62c | 166.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 165.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 158.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 54c | 152.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 141.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 140.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 129.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 121.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 116.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 44c | 106.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 97.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 81.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 69.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 63.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 53c | 63.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 63.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 23c | 63.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 62.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 21c | 59.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 44c | 59.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 50c | 55.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 55.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 52c | 54.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 54.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 53c | 53.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 59c | 49.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 48.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…d10abacked No | 63c | 44.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 79c | 43.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 40.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 67c | 39.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…549bbacked Yes | 49c | 38.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 36.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 35.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 66c | 34.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 69c | 34.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 79c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 51c | 30.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 69c | 29.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0751backed Yes | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 56c | 28.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 43c | 28.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed No | 56c | 26.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 25.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…1627backed Yes | 56c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…b188backed Yes | 49c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 41c | 24.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…366cbacked No | 61c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 73c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 71c | 14.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 88°F or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.