Us Politics · resolved market
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd772eb271ffa91dad86199cd2bff536e00a77ce3544fcd52d35517b4ebefe72a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe48a…67dabacked Yes | 6c | 8,114$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 9c | 4,720$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.23 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 10c | 4,637$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.23 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,859$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 9c | 3,143$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 6c | 2,385$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 10c | 2,222$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,100$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.24 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 6c | 1,544$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,142$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 835.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 13c | 650$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 620.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 7c | 589.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…ea08backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…85cebacked Yes | 8c | 466.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…7dfebacked Yes | 5c | 453.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 411.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 6c | 385.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…4f75backed Yes | 4c | 331.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 12c | 304.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…0fe0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 75c | 268$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…2cc5backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…a4eebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 180.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 10c | 179.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 17c | 161.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…9800backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e2…bf21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…d714backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 58.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…ddb9backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.