NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7798931a9819f36380d74a3873097cbda2d909f818f971a3725573939d096a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Ducks, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Ducks | 35c | 2,570$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.96 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Rangers | 65c | 2,300$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Ducks | 77c | 1,656$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.74 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Rangers | 17c | 1,513$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 33c | 1,495$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.79 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Rangers | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 36c | 404$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Rangers | 68c | 354.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Rangers | 7c | 268.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Ducks | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Rangers | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Ducks | 33c | 149.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…76b3backed Rangers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rangers | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rangers | 65c | 113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Rangers | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Rangers | 43c | 67.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Rangers | 64c | 64.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ducks | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Ducks | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ducks | 32c | 44.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rangers | 66c | 32.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 42c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Rangers | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rangers | 64c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Rangers | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rangers | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Ducks | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. DucksDucks won
- Rangers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.