NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77f878174a403931455f9ff2a10aeba1b709e52acb03ca8582ce1d7db956853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Saints, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Giants | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Saints | 52c | 8,717$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,184.34 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 52c | 8,650$4,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,152 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Saints | 52c | 6,898$3,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Giants | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Saints | 50c | 3,701$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.49 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Saints | 50c | 1,270$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Giants | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Saints | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Giants | 47c | 775.45$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.39 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Saints | 53c | 421.54$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Giants | 50c | 371.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Giants | 51c | 341.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.41 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Saints | 51c | 314.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 49c | 311.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Giants | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Saints | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Saints | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Saints | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…0545backed Saints | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Saints | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Giants | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Saints | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Giants | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Saints | 53c | 41.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Giants | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Saints | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Saints | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Saints | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Saints | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Giants | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Saints | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giants | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…66b7backed Giants | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-1.5)this page
- Giants vs. SaintsSaints won
- Giants vs. Saints: O/U 42.5Under won
- Giants vs. Saints: O/U 44.5Under won
- Giants vs. Saints: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.