Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78b62fd2d454be1eb4efa74d9f4f50d16349a36432b9883a076272a367e196d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mackenzie McDonaldof Stefano Napolitano, Mackenzie McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 11,009$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.82 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 10,189$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.2 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…4f43backed Mackenzie McDonald | 72c | 3,465$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.89 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…e791backed Stefano Napolitano | 30c | 3,011$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.25 | 337 | 37.1%125 W · 212 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 2,293$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.47 | 417 | 48.2%201 W · 216 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…27bbbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 73c | 2,205$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 77c | 1,793$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 1,297$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stefano Napolitano | 25c | 1,214$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.37 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 1,003$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.07 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 1,003$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d827backed Mackenzie McDonald | 71c | 975$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 963.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.16 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 961.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.36 | 415 | 35.4%147 W · 268 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Stefano Napolitano | 27c | 852$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.97 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 75c | 803.58$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.58 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 743.45$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…7f94backed Stefano Napolitano | 27c | 715.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ecf5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 667.4$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9d…cf12backed Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…b03abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 72c | 630$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mackenzie McDonald | 72c | 540.83$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 503.62$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 356.27$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Stefano Napolitano | 28c | 335.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…1063backed Mackenzie McDonald | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 260.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 258.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 746 | 54.8%409 W · 337 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd755…472fbacked Stefano Napolitano | 17c | 237.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 180.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 1,476 | 43.8%647 W · 829 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Mackenzie McDonald | 72c | 172.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 455 | 49.7%226 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 73c | 154.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 71c | 150.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Stefano Napolitano | 14c | 137.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 132.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 482 | 58.1%280 W · 202 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Stefano Napolitano | 18c | 99.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 278 | 32.4%90 W · 188 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…6794backed Mackenzie McDonald | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 378 | 53.7%203 W · 175 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 91.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 299 | 55.2%165 W · 134 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…5d85backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Stefano Napolitano | 26c | 71.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 471 | 48.2%227 W · 244 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Stefano Napolitano | 21c | 67.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 578 | 41%237 W · 341 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Stefano Napolitano | 24c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 60.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 375 | 58.1%218 W · 157 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 71c | 56.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 991 | 48.6%482 W · 509 L | +43.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Stefano Napolitano | 26c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,076 | 54.8%590 W · 486 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3cabbacked Stefano Napolitano | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 263 | 30.8%81 W · 182 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…cc2ebacked Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 43.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Mackenzie McDonald | 73c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 348 | 54.3%189 W · 159 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Mackenzie McDonald | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 455 | 53%241 W · 214 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Mackenzie McDonald | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 388 | 66.2%257 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1,882 | 57.4%1,081 W · 801 L | +104.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 77c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…27d1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…af6bbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,217 | 46.3%563 W · 654 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 281 | 68.7%193 W · 88 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 488 | 58%283 W · 205 L | +24.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Mackenzie McDonald | 78c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 304 | 65.5%199 W · 105 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 79c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 381 | 48.3%184 W · 197 L | +28.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…2c54backed Mackenzie McDonald | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie McDonaldthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs McDonaldMcDonald won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.