South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7968655c0e6f41c9e078de3f7b2a1abe35e36618d559e125efe65463b29bd00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pumas de la UNAMof CF Cruz Azul, Pumas de la UNAM
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CF Cruz Azul | 25c | 2,665$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.6 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pumas de la UNAM | 79c | 1,460$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Pumas de la UNAM | 69c | 1,171$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.61 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed CF Cruz Azul | 31c | 1,052$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.17 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked CF Cruz Azul | 32c | 887.71$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pumas de la UNAM | 67c | 606.06$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed CF Cruz Azul | 26c | 450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Pumas de la UNAM | 68c | 402.64$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Pumas de la UNAM | 68c | 352.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed CF Cruz Azul | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Pumas de la UNAM | 71c | 221.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Pumas de la UNAM | 76c | 102.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pumas de la UNAM | 69c | 89.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…7f38backed CF Cruz Azul | 20c | 73.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked CF Cruz Azul | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CF Cruz Azul | 31c | 62.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Pumas de la UNAM | 69c | 38.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed CF Cruz Azul | 31c | 35.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Pumas de la UNAM | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Pumas de la UNAM | 69c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Pumas de la UNAM | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.