Us Politics · resolved market
Congress passes bill banning TikTok by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b81793137d5dd6843a40e774fb25395361a4375b885784ff747520958b93d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 6c | 11,040$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.98 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 51c | 8,059$4,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,952.54 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked No | 10c | 6,091$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 4,634$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.03 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 6c | 3,717$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.26 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,490$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,995.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1a…78a2backed No | 2c | 2,266$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…1b5cbacked No | 5c | 2,057$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…78a2backed No | 10c | 1,927$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…53d2backed No | 5c | 1,624$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 77c | 1,285$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…e452backed No | 7c | 1,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 888$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.94 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 67c | 853.13$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.96 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 5c | 785.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 722$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 44c | 650$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…a57cbacked Yes | 31c | 519.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…abe5backed Yes | 7c | 455.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +661.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 9c | 426.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 68c | 405$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 4c | 394.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 61c | 380.55$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…f8dfbacked Yes | 52c | 373.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae8…3524backed No | 5c | 301.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +404%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…e5f5backed No | 26c | 220$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…dfc8backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…fbfdbacked No | 26c | 193.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…ed8cbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…46e1backed No | 65c | 153.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…8561backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…6935backed No | 47c | 123.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 66c | 112.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 48c | 103.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…828bbacked No | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…4c51backed Yes | 36c | 96.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4da8backed No | 60c | 54.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc917…9a9bbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…fb2fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…f1bebacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5fccbacked No | 58c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…dde4backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…ac04backed No | 68c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.