Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c00648a355853d9126e1642589f5c42e7771a4665a35064d400f14576b435d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 2,517$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.95 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 64c | 1,492$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.92 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…0da5backed Over | 42c | 1,466$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 1,434$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.47 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 38c | 1,007$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 57c | 974.2$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Over | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Over | 34c | 447.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.48 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Under | 67c | 438.9$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 369.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 350.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 34c | 282.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Over | 35c | 274.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 38c | 261.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 261.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Over | 33c | 253.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 195.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 34c | 185.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 117.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 94.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 66c | 93.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 66c | 91.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 47c | 86.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 77.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 33c | 70.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 41c | 70.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 49.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 33c | 37.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 35.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Bristol City FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.