Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3276cc394c526b28c31d626332fc099cd67ddc7a3d2f95de6a8f25715ed6429

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bristol City FCof Southampton FC, Bristol City FC
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,369 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaebf…e1cabacked Southampton FC	48c	5,209$2,495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,495.44	164	37.2%61 W · 103 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Bristol City FC	55c	3,892$2,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,751.4	146	52.1%76 W · 70 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Southampton FC	44c	3,333$1,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466.52	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Southampton FC	45c	1,997$907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907.29	112	29.5%33 W · 79 L	-9.8wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bristol City FC	53c	1,971$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$921.4	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Bristol City FC	55c	1,768$973 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.15	321	64.5%207 W · 114 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Bristol City FC	56c	1,704$956 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.06	152	55.9%85 W · 67 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bristol City FC	63c	1,481$927 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.41	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Bristol City FC	56c	1,460$818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.58	141	58.2%82 W · 59 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Southampton FC	45c	1,390$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.21	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Southampton FC	46c	1,374$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.21	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Southampton FC	45c	1,110$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.5	90	55.6%50 W · 40 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Southampton FC	46c	1,052$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Southampton FC	34c	999.99$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	192	35.9%69 W · 123 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked Bristol City FC	56c	865.83$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.96	111	69.4%77 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	72cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Southampton FC	44c	601.29$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.57	145	53.1%77 W · 68 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Southampton FC	45c	537.22$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.75	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Bristol City FC	54c	528.31$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.09	1,012	33.2%336 W · 676 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Bristol City FC	56c	486.8$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.19	121	57%69 W · 52 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Bristol City FC	56c	486.8$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.19	170	62.4%106 W · 64 L	+13.2wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bristol City FC	62c	453.66$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.6	1,662	34.9%580 W · 1,082 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Southampton FC	47c	401.7$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.8	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Bristol City FC	57c	398.18$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.22	143	55.9%80 W · 63 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Bristol City FC	56c	347.71$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.99	82	63.4%52 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x806a…62d7backed Southampton FC	44c	297.13$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.46	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-4.9wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Southampton FC	45c	293.47$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.06	395	55.9%221 W · 174 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Bristol City FC	54c	270$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.2	277	52.3%145 W · 132 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Bristol City FC	55c	252.49$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.62	489	50.1%245 W · 244 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Bristol City FC	57c	243.55$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.73	146	58.2%85 W · 61 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Southampton FC	46c	241.9$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.27	138	58.7%81 W · 57 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Bristol City FC	56c	223$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.12	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Southampton FC	10c	222$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	111	25.2%28 W · 83 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea9…0924backed Southampton FC	46c	210.35$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.76	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Southampton FC	45c	210$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	179	59.8%107 W · 72 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Southampton FC	45c	181.26$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.57	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x267d…3852backed Southampton FC	45c	168.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.04	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Bristol City FC	56c	141.99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.03	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Southampton FC	46c	141.95$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.29	85	49.4%42 W · 43 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Southampton FC	45c	137.93$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.07	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Bristol City FC	74c	120.54$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	240	52.9%127 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Bristol City FC	57c	97.42$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.89	105	58.1%61 W · 44 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6398…0485backed Bristol City FC	56c	91.92$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.44	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.21per pick	57cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde4a…3f75backed Bristol City FC	56c	79.42$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.94	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Southampton FC	45c	75.21$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	286	33.9%97 W · 189 L	+19.7wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Southampton FC	45c	75.18$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.82	317	46.1%146 W · 171 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bristol City FC	57c	73.07$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.42	561	58.6%329 W · 232 L	+29.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Southampton FC	23c	70.05$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	515	16.1%83 W · 432 L	-49.9wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Southampton FC	45c	66.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	168	58.3%98 W · 70 L	+8.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Bristol City FC	56c	55.48$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.41	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Southampton FC	44c	54.91$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	50	32%16 W · 34 L	-6.2wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Southampton FC	45c	53.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-5.3wins	-0.41per pick	49cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Southampton FC	44c	50.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	118	50.8%60 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Bristol City FC	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Southampton FC	47c	48.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	278	46.4%129 W · 149 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Southampton FC	25c	43.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa8…a410backed Southampton FC	46c	42.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Bristol City FC	55c	36.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e5…af5ebacked Bristol City FC	55c	35.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.92	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Bristol City FC	55c	32.51$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.71	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Bristol City FC	54c	28.36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Southampton FC	44c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72e9…6743backed Southampton FC	44c	26.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bristol City FC	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	605	57.5%348 W · 257 L	+25.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Bristol City FC	56c	24.34$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	655	57.7%378 W · 277 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Bristol City FC	55c	22.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	221	46.2%102 W · 119 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Bristol City FC	56c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	594	45.5%270 W · 324 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bristol City FC	64c	18.95$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.73	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)this page
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event