Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d0286f25a68a0578261e2accf7d3b0f5668cf765831b3fc16e53687f22f73c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Ruud, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Ruud | 53c | 19,015$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cerundolo | 48c | 6,500$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,412.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 47c | 4,414$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.32 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Cerundolo | 51c | 4,000$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.29 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Cerundolo | 50c | 2,271$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.9 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Cerundolo | 50c | 2,002$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.88 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Cerundolo | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cerundolo | 47c | 1,125$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.5 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cerundolo | 49c | 600$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cerundolo | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…9587backed Ruud | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Cerundolo | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Cerundolo | 52c | 230.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cerundolo | 49c | 227.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Cerundolo | 49c | 227.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cerundolo | 48c | 208.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ruud | 48c | 202.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 201.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Ruud | 50c | 172.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Ruud | 49c | 161.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Ruud | 23c | 151.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Cerundolo | 51c | 143.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ruud | 49c | 125.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ruud | 52c | 119.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Ruud | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cerundolo | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Cerundolo | 52c | 91.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Cerundolo | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ruud | 50c | 71.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79c…73fbbacked Cerundolo | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Ruud | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…456cbacked Ruud | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Cerundolo | 51c | 40.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Cerundolo | 50c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Ruud | 51c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 410 | 45.1%185 W · 225 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ruud | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs RuudRuud won
- Set 2 Winner: Cerundolo vs RuudCerundolo won
- Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper RuudJuan Manuel Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.