Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd80cc904110b08df9f1daf50b6544db0ea66681a04c0e0c2d959c6437e83a013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827f…7f59backed No | 34c | 7,156$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,722.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 66c | 7,000$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.96 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 3,799$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 64c | 2,840$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,644$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 33c | 1,527$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.55 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 33c | 1,109$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.07 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 67c | 671.64$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 68c | 622$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.96 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…81d7backed Yes | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 567.09$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 67c | 530.87$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.99 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Yes | 48c | 504.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 32c | 475.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.32 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 32c | 443.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.91 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 67c | 399.93$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 66c | 347$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 68c | 275.07$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 66c | 163.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 67c | 149.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 32c | 116.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…92e3backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…58d4backed Yes | 67c | 46.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…50e3backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 42.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 33c | 40.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 66c | 37.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Yes | 35c | 32.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…9f97backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe589…d2fcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f1b8backed Yes | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 67c | 22.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.