Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc870d3ed97755042efeb5d023db2148aba7f3cf6cc854f76d2c7a6bfd01298ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 6,065$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,874.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 17c | 1,452$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.8 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 29c | 1,260$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 14c | 758.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.07 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 77c | 714$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 79c | 500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.09 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 469.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 462.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 48c | 462.81$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.05 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 14c | 369.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 368.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.04 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 14c | 348.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.73 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 8c | 217$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Under | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 60c | 146.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 53c | 114.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 51c | 97.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 53c | 90.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 44c | 68.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 71c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 73c | 21.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.