Bundesliga · resolved market

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa286529fd4a3e8043377fe5a6b52960bb26be5b78c165d67259bdba8c3253007

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	14,779$7,632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,147.37	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over	31c	5,499$1,705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,704.69	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Over	64c	4,480$2,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,867.2	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-6.2wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	36c	3,945$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,530.51	782	48.8%382 W · 400 L	-28.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	65c	1,971$1,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,276.72	80	68.8%55 W · 25 L	+7.5wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	35c	1,500$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$974.99	277	26.4%73 W · 204 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x678b…beafbacked Over	65c	1,077$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	35c	942.99$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.05	116	30.2%35 W · 81 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d4…770ebacked Over	50c	700$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-4.5wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	66c	606.58$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	88	46.6%41 W · 47 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	65c	600$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	227	47.1%107 W · 120 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over	28c	558.22$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.92	54	25.9%14 W · 40 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over	45c	555.56$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under	35c	550.33$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.74	228	29.4%67 W · 161 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	36c	544.24$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.75	110	56.4%62 W · 48 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over	67c	503.51$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.72	83	36.1%30 W · 53 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	64c	501.59$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.02	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	35c	443.97$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.58	143	64.3%92 W · 51 L	+14.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	49c	407$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.43	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	34c	392.23$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.39	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over	65c	384.62$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	67	68.7%46 W · 21 L	+6.2wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Over	59c	338.98$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over	54c	307.97$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.1	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	65c	307.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	187	59.4%111 W · 76 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…64e1backed Over	80c	250$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	70cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1110…0123backed Over	67c	246.27$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b79…6a80backed Under	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.25	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	71cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over	64c	200$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over	65c	200$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	23c	181.23$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.64	511	36.8%188 W · 323 L	-28.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b3…5c29backed Over	67c	179.1$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	22	72.7%16 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	29c	172.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over	65c	154$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over	65c	153.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over	66c	151.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	67cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under	35c	143.48$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.26	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	70c	135$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	491	43.2%212 W · 279 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	63c	109.36$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.54	346	55.5%192 W · 154 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	79	50.6%40 W · 39 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked Over	65c	92.31$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	81	69.1%56 W · 25 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	63cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over	64c	87.87$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.24	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	33c	85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.85	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over	66c	79$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.14	345	47.5%164 W · 181 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd6…4ed9backed Over	65c	77.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Over	65c	75.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.22	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-7.3wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	36c	66.54$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.75	165	42.4%70 W · 95 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	29c	62.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	271	42.8%116 W · 155 L	+18.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06a0…a39fbacked Over	65c	61.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	26c	55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Under	36c	53$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.92	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Over	64c	52.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.63	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb7…f733backed Over	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cb8…7529backed Over	66c	45.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf274…fcadbacked Over	64c	42.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed Over	31c	41.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47f…c246backed Over	65c	40.02$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	64cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over	57c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Over	66c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	34c	39.96$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.17	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	65c	38.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	167	50.9%85 W · 82 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Over	73c	37.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.53	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-9.8wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	70c	34.86$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e63…2d79backed Over	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over	63c	33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	77	59.7%46 W · 31 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over	71c	30.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x276f…bfb5backed Over	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	60cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	40c	30.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	119	55.5%66 W · 53 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under	35c	30.61$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	205	45.9%94 W · 111 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc92…6564backed Over	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	76%19 W · 6 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	67cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	72c	28.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	108	63%68 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	66c	24.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	373	44.5%166 W · 207 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f26…14f0backed Over	65c	24.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Over	63c	23.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0c2…6784backed Over	64c	23.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	68cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe76c…1c3cbacked Over	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	64c	21.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	78	67.9%53 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…a568backed Over	66c	21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	94	68.1%64 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	71cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f69…91d6backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e06…c8c6backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5this page
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event