Movies · resolved market
Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85e7aa2b78dda2d1d106cb5afb8980c158216c039859e4888b5fd417ca22810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 15c | 1,021$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.98 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 17c | 600.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.81 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 11c | 428.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 12c | 300.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed Yes | 19c | 205$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 16c | 150.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 10c | 123.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 35c | 105.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 19c | 103.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…cae6backed Yes | 21c | 52.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?this page
- Will Gabriel Labelle win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Glen Powell win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Hugh Grant win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Jesse Eisenberg win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.