Movies · resolved market
Will Hugh Grant win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715bf5a90123903c29e53b99583c395f09411c1269a01e33cece14ca885d1c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 10c | 2,611$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.79 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 24c | 2,300$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 26c | 1,062$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.07 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 18c | 966.57$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 663$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 74c | 544.45$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 14c | 363.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 319.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 20c | 306.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 261$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7e…fb5ebacked Yes | 20c | 203.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…1994backed Yes | 24c | 169.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 80c | 144.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 10c | 123.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 36c | 102.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…0016backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9344backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 48.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…3cf7backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…76ecbacked Yes | 26c | 39.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hugh Grant win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?this page
- Will Gabriel Labelle win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Glen Powell win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Jesse Eisenberg win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.