TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jesse Eisenberg win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Musical or Comedy?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21d0…d64dbacked Yes46c21,700$9,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,98220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0676…477fbacked Yes46c21,500$9,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,890250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f4…102abacked Yes46c21,500$9,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,89010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9f…2453backed Yes46c21,000$9,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,66010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0804…0e63backed No54c11,700$6,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a46…f5e6backed No54c11,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…766abacked No54c11,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a5b…afc0backed No54c10,800$5,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9682100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb522…4d42backed No54c10,700$5,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560c…22ecbacked No54c10,500$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…e142backed No54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8df…b8a4backed No54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd469…d2e4backed Yes57c1,762$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes50c1,417$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked No58c1,286$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.21977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+47.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No52c1,266$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.848334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6301…885bbacked No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe187…1838backed Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x396d…fd0abacked Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e0…ffc5backed No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde8…3f76backed Yes51c975$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4307…b898backed Yes52c975$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4b…f338backed No49c975$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8722…2df4backed No48c975$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e8…c6c6backed No52c970$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd88…10b3backed No52c970$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e7…c836backed Yes48c970$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0301…3505backed Yes48c970$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaef…2cabbacked Yes48c960$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…6808backed No52c960$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4386…1093backed No53c960$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabd…c78cbacked Yes47c960$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68d…bdf2backed No54c950$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ab…40e0backed Yes46c950$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc2…7957backed Yes46c950$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6efd…461bbacked No54c950$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No50c903$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5323751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a72…3c27backed No45c871.81$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405a…6382backed Yes55c871.81$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No50c843.77$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.67448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No50c764.58$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.6418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes44c700$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed No53c635$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.87977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick38cpaid+152.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No52c600.55$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.7967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No62c544.29$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed Yes38c522.81$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.812227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25032639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No50c450$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7234651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No50c340.89$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.451872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+78.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes42c304.73$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.987135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes43c298$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.141850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e71…3838backed Yes51c292.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No51c258$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.421526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c252.07$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes45c205.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.232556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16f5…667ebacked Yes50c204.26$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xded2…abc3backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes31c199.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6313119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…76b4backed Yes54c186.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No49c176.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2918444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No23c174.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes52c169$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-74.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed Yes41c168.87$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…35febacked Yes49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c155.36$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No58c137.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.253348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No17c134.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.776541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8837…6b34backed Yes44c124.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes56c123.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641a…6884backed Yes51c119.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee9…07d1backed Yes53c117.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb12…cd7fbacked Yes45c111.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes48c107.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4719836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No54c105.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.589441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ce…17aebacked No53c104.57$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdf…18a6backed Yes52c103.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…274dbacked Yes55c100.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…b767backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a56…0fc7backed No52c98.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…a82cbacked Yes52c97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1510244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafea…bd12backed No51c95.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce4…690ebacked Yes47c92.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes40c89.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.18742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5b…db92backed Yes52c89.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a7…4868backed No55c89.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No56c88.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.112846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb565…bc27backed No60c87.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5907…c60ebacked No62c86.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fe…f453backed Yes45c84.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes46c82.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.094337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No52c80.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…1295backed No60c78.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No51c76.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.529231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x772f…2a69backed Yes49c75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfacc…1dc8backed No51c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0bd…96cfbacked No55c74.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7e…fb5ebacked No57c74.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.