Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d33cc7d6e6befc18bb44313ea83710c6059132228ea181180114e1fbaeecf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80f8…4807backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 71c | 1,000$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 80c | 745$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 70c | 678.49$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 625.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.39 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 15c | 418.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 21c | 325.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 317.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 301.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 277.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 275.94$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 265.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 24c | 257.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 248.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 20c | 222.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 204$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 178.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 142.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 139$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 136.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 134.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 19c | 133.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 116.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 68c | 114.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 108.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 108.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 93.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 84.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 84.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 22c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 80.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 80.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 79c | 72.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 23c | 72.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 69.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 23c | 60.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 59.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 75c | 55.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 33c | 54.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…28d1backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked Yes | 24c | 48.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 47.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 43.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 34.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 33.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…fb81backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.