Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1d03e56915f73c21cf242e61ac2029978354560bf789ae3253d96162221f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 52c | 979.22$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 344.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 340.88$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 340.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 60c | 330.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 311.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 36c | 277.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.96 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 270$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 214.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…47dfbacked Yes | 76c | 198.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 194.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 25c | 182.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 80c | 144.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 125.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 114.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 62c | 109.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 20c | 107.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 97.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 95.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 94.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 40c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 70.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 78c | 66.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 36c | 65.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 64.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 62.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 45c | 58.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 43c | 56.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 54c | 53.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 53c | 53.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 41c | 45.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 44.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 61c | 42.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 38.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 35.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 66c | 35.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 33.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 32.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 65c | 30.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 29.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 64c | 25.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 56c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 20.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 16.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 71c | 14.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.