Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f6608ff23207c7ce40d7d334b35ecdb45ea422c048556d06a1e957c336bf82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 1c | 1,268$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 52c | 913.79$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.04 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 805.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 769.5$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 734.48$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.68 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed Yes | 5c | 731.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 58c | 523.43$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.35 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 502.1$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 58c | 500.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 43c | 492.87$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 21c | 485.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…baafbacked Yes | 35c | 433.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 398.87$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 58c | 344.16$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 328.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 35c | 306.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 50c | 297.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 23c | 296.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…6e73backed Yes | 41c | 273.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 46c | 258.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed No | 49c | 235.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 53c | 233.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 31c | 221.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 49c | 205.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 196.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 12c | 185.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 6c | 183.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 170.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 49c | 161.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 32c | 150.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 35c | 149.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 39c | 149.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 144.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…a83dbacked Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 16c | 121.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 55c | 120.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 120.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 32c | 114.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 111.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 30c | 109.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…4fd4backed Yes | 35c | 109.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 108.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 52c | 108.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 103.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 62c | 102.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 13c | 101.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 100.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…1795backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 97.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 58c | 90.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 37c | 82.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 82.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 82.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…fe66backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed Yes | 40c | 77.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 69.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 70c | 66.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 48c | 66.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 35c | 65.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…e931backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 19c | 60.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 21c | 59.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 29c | 57.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 56.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e43…998cbacked Yes | 29c | 55.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 40c | 50.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 53c | 49.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 41c | 48.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 48.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 48.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 63c | 47.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…deb9backed Yes | 43c | 43.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 63c | 38.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…ae75backed No | 73c | 33.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 31c | 33.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…4b40backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 63c | 30.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.