Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1656087aac09ddce744392b23881191adae300daa8c6b42e8ee180e57ec4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,044 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 62c | 743.08$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.49 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 701.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 51c | 651.44$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 68c | 614.81$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.37 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 62c | 604.44$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 11c | 503.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 488.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 41c | 391.19$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.26 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 17c | 345.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…640abacked No | 62c | 338.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 23c | 338.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.92 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 332.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.07 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 313.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 42c | 263.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 35c | 251$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 71c | 244$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 243.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 71c | 230$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 40c | 227.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 18c | 226.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 10c | 218$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 216.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 211.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 29c | 210.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 12c | 209.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 56c | 191.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 27c | 179.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 9c | 176.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 9c | 170$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 10c | 167$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 15c | 150.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 150.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 146.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 79c | 134.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Yes | 12c | 134.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 131.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 14c | 129.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 23c | 129.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e43…998cbacked Yes | 13c | 120.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 120.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 116.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 12c | 112.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 14c | 108.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 14c | 106.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 21c | 104.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 104.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 102.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…a48dbacked Yes | 15c | 100.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…7adabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 21c | 92.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 72c | 83.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…fe66backed Yes | 25c | 80.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 40c | 78.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 79c | 52.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 62c | 43.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 41.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 52c | 33.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 50c | 32.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5524…6592backed Yes | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 42c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 53c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…0bf0backed No | 59c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…cf46backed Yes | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.